Friday, September 30, 2005

Mortgage Rates continue up

A steep decline in first-time unemployment claims and continued signs of inflation ignited selling in U.S. Treasury securities on Thursday. Traders are sensitive to any signs of inflation, which erodes the value of fixed-rate assets, and they are on the lookout for events that could lead to inflation. Today they found both. Treasury prices tumbled and their yields, which move in the opposite direction of prices, crept back up after Wednesday's decline. Higher yields forced mortgage lenders who base their rates on yields to move them up on most mortgage products.

At 4 p.m. EDT, AVERAGE mortgage rates (zero discount points) based on rates collected nationwide were:

The 30-year Conventional Fixed-Rate Mortgage was at 5.678 percent from 5.672 percent at Wednesday's close.

The 15-year Conventional Fixed-Rate Mortgage was at 5.258 percent from 5.269 percent at Tuesday's close.

Coming Up:
The final Consumer Sentiment report for September from the University of Michigan, Personal Incomes and Outlays for August and the Chicago PMI index on September business conditions are all due Friday. Consumer sentiment is expected to remain steady at 76.9, as is Personal Income with a 0.3 percent increase. Analysts are expecting a decline in Personal Spending, however, since that component rose in July due to the purchase of autos. A decline to minus 0.3 percent is estimated, which would be far below the 1-percent gain in July. This report contains an inflation indicator that will be closely watched by the markets. The Chicago PMI is also expected to rise to 53 from a grim 49.2 posted in August.

As usual, reports showing either economic strength or inflation would weigh on Treasuries. However, if reports come in on target, mortgage rates should hold near newly elevated levels.