Thursday, September 15, 2005

Mortgage Rates Rise 9-14-2005

U.S. Treasury securities rallied Wednesday on the initial Retail Sales report that showed sales plunging 2.1 percent in August. This was nearly double the 1.3-percent decline that was forecast, and far short of the 1.8 percent increase in July. Bond traders felt that the significant dip in consumer spending could slow the economy, but a closer look revealed that the consumer is alive and well. Auto sales dove 12.9 percent in August, dragging overall sales down, but when they were excluded, sales rose by a healthy 1.0 percent. The forecast and the previous months sales both showed 0.5-percent increases. Sales of electronics, furniture and sporting goods were especially strong, along with health and personal care products. Powerful spending by the consumer was also seen by bond traders as a good reason for the Fed to hike rates at its Tuesday meeting.

At 4 p.m. EDT, AVERAGE mortgage rates (zero discount points) based on rates collected nationwide were:

The 30-year Conventional Fixed-Rate Mortgage was at 5.561 percent versus 5.536 percent at Tuesday's close.

The 15-year Conventional Fixed-Rate Mortgage was at 5.13 percent from 5.119 percent at Tuesday's close.

Coming Up: Thursday is another busy day on the economic front. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of the main inflation indicators, is due. While it is forecast to climb 0.5 percent, the core rate, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, is expected to increase by a tame 0.2 percent. The predictions are close to July results that showed CPI up 0.5 percent and the core gaining 0.1 percent.

Overnight and into tomorrow mortgage rates should hold at today's higher levels. Strong economic data and signs of inflation could keep the pressure on, while reports that come in on forecast or below might allow lenders to edge rates down a little.